The New Commonwealth

The New Commonwealth

A family should be able to live on one paycheck again.

Fifty years ago a man with an ordinary job could buy a house, marry and raise kids on what he earned. Most people can't do that now. We think most of the reasons are rules that somebody wrote, and rules can be rewritten.

I

What went wrong

Americans are more alone than they used to be. In 1990, 3% of adults said they had no close friends. By 2021 it was 12%. Half of men used to say they had six or more close friends, and now about a quarter do. One in four 40-year-olds has never married, up from one in sixteen in 1980. More than a quarter of American households are one person living alone, the highest share on record.

We don't think this happened because people got worse. Over the last sixty years we made it easier and cheaper to leave: a job, a town, a church, a marriage. A lot of that freedom was worth having. But the things that hold people together are mostly things that are hard to walk away from, and when leaving costs nothing, fewer people stay.

Change also came faster than families, towns, churches and schools could adjust to. Nobody on our side wants to bring back 1955. We want a pace of change that ordinary institutions can keep up with.

Adults with no close friendsShare
3%1990 12%2021
40-year-olds never marriedShare
1 in 161980 1 in 4NOW
Men with six or more close friendsShare
halfTHEN a quarterNOW

Each line joins two reported points. Nothing between them is drawn from data.

Plate IThe rate of change
novelty arriving what institutions absorb not absorbed THEY CROSS TIME RATE

A sketch of the idea, with no data behind the curves. What matters is the rate: how fast change arrives, compared with how fast families, towns and schools can adjust to it.

II

How we'd do it

In 1965, 42% of American adults smoked. Today about 11% do. Cigarettes were never banned. What worked was a set of steady, unglamorous measures:

  1. Smoking was banned indoors, where it affected other people.
  2. Cigarettes were taxed heavily, which hit young smokers hardest because they have the least money.
  3. Advertising was restricted while the product stayed legal.
  4. Lawsuits and regulation went after the tobacco companies. Smokers were treated as people who needed help quitting.
  5. Over time, smoking stopped being normal.

We'd use the same approach elsewhere. Pressure goes on whoever has the money, the information and the choice: the employer who hires illegally rather than the worker, the sportsbook rather than the gambler, the dealer rather than the addict. The individual gets help and a way back.

American adults who smokeShare
42%1965 11%TODAY

Two reported points and a straight line between them. Cigarettes stayed legal the whole way down.

Plate IIWhere the pressure lands
SCALE, INFORMATION, INTENT producerdistributormarketingthe person the next buyer removes one buyer removes the supply

Pressure on the person removes one buyer. Keep scrolling to move it upstream.

III

What we'd change

Paper 01

Safe streets

Safety comes first. Violence isn't tolerated, sidewalks and parks aren't anyone's permanent campsite, and the border is controlled. Once that floor is in place, each city can run itself however its residents want.

A big reason people with severe mental illness end up living on the sidewalk is a 1965 Medicaid rule. For adults aged 21 to 64 it won't pay for care in a psychiatric hospital with more than 16 beds, and the exceptions added since are narrow and short-stay. States closed their hospitals and nothing replaced them.

FEDERAL
  • Repeal the 16-bed rule. Pay for the beds before enforcement starts.
STATE
  • Commitment standards that cover people too sick to take care of themselves.
  • Enforce public camping laws.
LOCAL
  • Put police where the trouble concentrates, starting with the blocks around downtown.
Paper 02

Wages and immigration

Every institution can only absorb so much change at once, and immigration is the clearest case. We want a pause on large-scale immigration, long enough for wages and communities to catch up, while staying open to new technology and new ideas.

When employers say they can't find workers, it usually means they won't pay what the job takes. When the cheap labor stops, some jobs pay more and some get replaced by machines. Both are better than a wage held down for the Americans already doing that work. The penalty belongs on the employer who breaks the law, because he is the one profiting from it.

FEDERAL
  • Every employer verifies who they hire, and the employer carries the liability.
  • Guest worker visas cut close to zero.
STATE
  • Tie hiring verification to state business licenses, so employers who break the rule lose their license.
LOCAL
  • Require verification from contractors on public projects.
Paper 03

Houses a family can live in

We build policy around the household, which is often three generations looking after each other. On most residential land in America the only thing you can legally build is a single-family house, so a house sized for that family, or a small unit in the back yard for a parent, usually needs special permission. Housing has also turned into an investment everyone expects to keep rising, which is good for people who already own and hard on young families trying to buy.

FEDERAL
  • Tax rules that reward families living together.
  • Caregiver credits paid to the family members who do the caring.
  • Keep large investment funds from buying up single-family homes.
STATE
  • A book of pre-approved house plans that any city can adopt, so families there can build them without a custom review.
  • Laws that let kids walk to school and play outside without their parents being charged.
LOCAL
  • End parking minimums.
  • Allow the corner store again.
Paper 04

Own your tools

People should own the things they work with. A farmer who pays $600,000 or more for a combine should be able to fix it, and to buy the diagnostic tool he needs to do it. A business that runs on AI should be able to run its own model, instead of renting from three companies that can raise the price or cut it off. Open models, which anyone can download and run, keep that ownership spread out.

FEDERAL
  • Protect open AI models from licensing rules that only the biggest companies can meet.
  • Make right to repair a condition of sale.
  • Replace the estate tax with a tax on large inheritances, paid by the person who receives them.
STATE
  • Repair laws for farm and consumer equipment.
  • Fund land banks.
LOCAL
  • Offer vacant property to people who will live in it first.
Paper 05

Build big things

The country should be building reactors, ships and the whole computer-chip supply chain, including the machines that make the chips. Nuclear power is expensive here mostly because every plant is a custom job. France built its 56 reactors from a handful of standard designs in three sizes, one after another, while the US has built nearly every plant as a one-off.

Big projects also have to outlast the president who starts them. Apollo was cut back as soon as it reached the moon. The Interstate took 36 years to finish because it had its own trust fund paid for by the gas tax, and contracts in nearly every congressional district, so every member had a reason to protect it.

FEDERAL
  • Pick three reactor designs and order fifty of each.
  • Rebuild the shipyards the Navy depends on.
  • A twenty-year plan to make every part of the chip supply chain at home.
  • Program funding that keeps running unless Congress votes to stop it.
STATE
  • Faster permits for power plants and transmission lines.
  • Trade training tied to specific projects.
LOCAL
  • Towns that host a plant get cheap power.
Paper 06

Jobs without the degree tax

A college degree has become the entry fee for a middle-class job, even for work that doesn't need one, and it's a weak predictor of how well someone will actually do the job. Employers didn't choose this. In 1971 the Supreme Court made aptitude tests legally risky, and a 1991 law closed the main workaround. The degree was what was left. About two-thirds of job postings for production supervisors ask for a degree that only one in six people already doing the job have. About one in five workers needs a government license to do their job.

FEDERAL
  • A legal safe harbor for employers who use validated aptitude tests.
  • Drop degree requirements from federal hiring and from federal contractors' hiring screens.
  • Tax the largest university endowments and send the money to students directly.
STATE
  • Drop degree requirements from state jobs.
  • Cut back occupational licensing, and let licenses carry across state lines.
LOCAL
  • Fund trade programs as well as college prep.
Plate IIIThe credential squeeze
judge aworker hire aptitude test, closed 1971GRIGGS v. DUKE POWER adjust the scores, closed 1991CIVIL RIGHTS ACT §106 require a degreeTHE ONLY DOOR LEFT
Paper 07

Real food

Americans didn't get heavier in one generation because they got lazy. The food changed. In a 2019 NIH study, people ate about 500 more calories a day on an ultra-processed diet than on an unprocessed one, even though both diets offered the same sugar, fat, fiber and salt. It was a small study, but the difference was large. Washington pays billions a year to grow the corn and soybeans this food is made from, and food companies can declare their own additives safe without telling the FDA. Before anyone taxes food, the government should stop paying for the ingredients.

FEDERAL
  • Fix crop subsidies before taxing any food.
  • End the rule that lets companies approve their own additives.
  • Pay hospitals the same as doctors' offices for the same service.
STATE
  • Let people sell food made at home and buy directly from farms.
  • Require nonprofit hospitals to provide charity care worth at least as much as their tax break.
LOCAL
  • Allow backyard and city farming.
IV

How you'll know

We want to be judged on results. If we're right, within a generation:

  • A man with an ordinary job can support a family on one income and buy a median-priced house.
  • The share of Americans with no close friends falls by half, from 12% to 6%.
  • Most young people can get a good job without a four-year degree.
  • More families own their home, their land or their business.
  • Electricity gets cheaper.
  • Fewer people are murdered.

If those numbers don't move, we got it wrong.

V

The papers

Each paper lists its sources, and every number in it links to one.

Every paper follows the same order:

  1. The claim, in one paragraph.
  2. The evidence, with the evidence against us in the same section.
  3. The cause, one level up from the symptom.
  4. What follows, at the federal, state and local level.
  5. An action annex with model bill language.
  6. What would prove it wrong.
  1. Paper 01Safe streets
  2. Paper 02Wages and immigration
  3. Paper 03Houses a family can live in
  4. Paper 04Own your tools
  5. Paper 05Build big things
  6. Paper 06Jobs without the degree tax
  7. Paper 07Real food
VI

Join the cadre

A readership doesn't change a law. A state legislator with a bill already drafted does. The papers end in model bills written so a legislator can file them without hiring counsel, and the cadre is the people who carry them.

We ask more of the people who join than of anyone else. This is what we ask, starting with what costs least:

  1. Read the papers closely enough to argue with them.
  2. If you think a number is wrong, say so. Every number is being checked.
  3. Show up at the hearing when a model bill reaches your statehouse.
  4. Write the testimony, and put your name to it.

The cadre is built in person, so there is no sign-up form on this page.